#3 and #4 are the lessons I suspect most retail investors will look back on as the underappreciated calls of this cycle. U.S. weight in global market cap at 1987 highs combined with value at a 30-year underweight — that pairing has historically not resolved gently. One nuance worth adding: "value" inside the S&P doesn't help much when the index itself is cap-weighted toward the most expensive cohort. The cleaner expression has been active managers running concentrated, non-Mag-7 books — several of which have outperformed ~90% of peers over the past five years while no one was paying attention. The setup for a real counterweight to AI-heavy growth exposure looks better than it has in a long time.
https://open.substack.com/pub/tradernation/p/bidu-the-ai-robotaxi-beast-nobodys?r=4atcwp&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Thank you for sharing! Do you know which etf like sp500 but excluding tech companies?
Great insights! Aligned with all insights - except the survivorship bias by taking the example of Micron :)
#3 and #4 are the lessons I suspect most retail investors will look back on as the underappreciated calls of this cycle. U.S. weight in global market cap at 1987 highs combined with value at a 30-year underweight — that pairing has historically not resolved gently. One nuance worth adding: "value" inside the S&P doesn't help much when the index itself is cap-weighted toward the most expensive cohort. The cleaner expression has been active managers running concentrated, non-Mag-7 books — several of which have outperformed ~90% of peers over the past five years while no one was paying attention. The setup for a real counterweight to AI-heavy growth exposure looks better than it has in a long time.