Excellent deep dive! The Buffett buy is a strong signal, but I wanted to add some quantitative rigor to the thesis. I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo DCF simulations on UNH:
• Median intrinsic value: $546/share (~34% margin of safety at current ~$360)
• P(undervalued): 87.6%
• PEG ratio: 0.56 — pricing in far more risk than warranted
• Moat probability (ROIC > WACC): 91.3%
The S-Curve analysis shows UNH at ~68% market penetration — still in growth phase, not maturity. Optum vertical integration is expanding the addressable market faster than consensus models.
Healthcare is at its lowest S&P weighting since 1994. That is a textbook contrarian signal for quality compounders like UNH.
Hi Pieter - I thought you had bought UNH based off of this article and another, however when I log into the portfolio I can’t see it, nor can I in your most recent round up of the portfolio performance. I just wanted to check whether you have invested in UNH, and whether the portfolio is yet to be updated, or have I missed something?
Thank you.
It’s an honor, Tyler!
Excellent deep dive! The Buffett buy is a strong signal, but I wanted to add some quantitative rigor to the thesis. I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo DCF simulations on UNH:
• Median intrinsic value: $546/share (~34% margin of safety at current ~$360)
• P(undervalued): 87.6%
• PEG ratio: 0.56 — pricing in far more risk than warranted
• Moat probability (ROIC > WACC): 91.3%
The S-Curve analysis shows UNH at ~68% market penetration — still in growth phase, not maturity. Optum vertical integration is expanding the addressable market faster than consensus models.
Healthcare is at its lowest S&P weighting since 1994. That is a textbook contrarian signal for quality compounders like UNH.
Full quantitative valuation with Monte Carlo distributions: https://paybackperiod.substack.com/p/unitedhealth-unh-advanced-quantitative
Hi Pieter - I thought you had bought UNH based off of this article and another, however when I log into the portfolio I can’t see it, nor can I in your most recent round up of the portfolio performance. I just wanted to check whether you have invested in UNH, and whether the portfolio is yet to be updated, or have I missed something?
Apologies if this is a silly question!
Hi Louis,
UNH was actualy bought for Compounding Dividends, it’s our dividend service!